Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
